Harris Edges Trump in Georgia, but Race Remains Tight

A new Fox News poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly leading former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in Georgia. Harris receives 51% support compared to Trump’s 48%, among both registered and likely voters. This narrow lead, while within the margin of error, is consistent with last month’s poll where Harris was up 50-48%.

Key Issue: Abortion

Harris’ most significant advantage lies in her handling of the abortion issue, where she is favored by 18 points. Trump, on the other hand, holds a 15-point lead on handling immigration.

Trump’s Path to Victory

Republican pollster Daron Shaw sees a clear path for Trump: “He has to make nice with Governor Kemp and non-MAGA Republicans — and if he does that, he probably has the edge.”

Voters’ Motivations

The poll also found that high prices are the biggest motivator for voters in this election cycle.

Demographics: Harris’ Strengths, Trump’s Strengths

Harris’ strongest support comes from Black voters, urban voters, those under age 30, and women. Trump, meanwhile, enjoys support from White voters without a college degree, rural voters, men, and voters ages 65 and over.

The Role of Party Loyalty

The poll highlights the importance of party loyalty, with more Democrats backing Harris than Republicans backing Trump. Interestingly, one in five non-MAGA Republicans support Harris.

Looking Ahead

The Georgia race remains incredibly tight, with both candidates vying for victory. The outcome will likely hinge on voter turnout and the ability to mobilize key demographics.

Methodology

The Fox News Poll was conducted from September 20-24, 2024, with a sample of 1,006 Georgia registered voters. The margin of sampling error for the full registered voter sample is ±3 percentage points, and for the likely voter subsample it is ±3.5 percentage points.