Trump Narrowly Edges Out Harris in Arizona, with Young Voters, Hispanics, and Women Shifting Away from Democratic Nominee
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A new Fox News survey of Arizona voters shows former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race. This comes as Harris experiences a decline in support among key demographics, including women, Hispanics, and young voters.
The poll finds Harris trailing Trump by 3 percentage points among likely voters in both a two-way matchup (48-51%) and a broader ballot including third-party candidates (47-50%, with 3% backing other candidates). While a large majority, 9 in 10, report their vote is already decided, a small number of supporters for both candidates indicate they may change their minds.
This shift in the race marks a significant change from August, when Harris led Trump by 1 point among registered voters (50-49%). Now, she trails by 2 points (48-50%). Although these margins remain within the margin of error, the trend suggests a potential momentum shift in the race.
The 3-point shift among registered voters can be attributed to changes in support among key demographics, notably young voters, women, and Hispanics.
Harris’ 18-point lead among Hispanics in August has narrowed to 11 points, while her 14-point edge among women has shrunk to 8 points. A startling 25-point swing has occurred among voters under 30, who once favored Harris by 13 points but now lean toward Trump by 12 points. These shifts, while subject to volatility among subgroups, highlight a growing concern for the Harris campaign.
Harris-Trump Showdown: The Edge is Clear on This Key Issue
While Trump holds a slim lead overall, the race is far from settled. Harris maintains strong support among specific demographics, including those aged 65 and over, voters with a college degree, and urban voters. Notably, she still receives majority backing from women and Hispanics. Additionally, one in four non-MAGA Republicans favors Harris over Trump.
Trump, on the other hand, enjoys a clear advantage among White voters without a college degree, rural voters, and independents. His narrow lead among suburban voters can be attributed to a greater share of suburban men supporting him than suburban women supporting Harris. Furthermore, a slight majority of his 2020 voters remain loyal, while a smaller number of Biden’s 2020 voters support Harris.
Voters Cite High Prices as Biggest Motivator to Vote
Among new voters, defined as those who haven’t voted in the last four elections, Trump leads by a 51-46% margin.
“Arizona is looking tougher for Harris than a month ago,” observes Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who collaborates with Republican Daron Shaw on Fox News surveys. “If young voters and Hispanics don’t make a U-turn, it’s hard to see how she walks away with a win.”
The survey also reveals significant differences in voters’ trust in the candidates on key issues. Trump surpasses Harris in terms of voters’ confidence in handling immigration (by 15 points) and the economy (+8). While these leads align with last month’s findings, they represent a decline from Trump’s June leads over President Joe Biden on these issues.
Trump also holds a 7-point edge in voters’ perceptions of his ability to make the country safer.
However, the candidates are fairly evenly matched on issues like protecting democracy (Harris +3), helping the middle class (Harris +2), fighting for people like you (Harris +2), and bringing needed change (Trump +1).
Harris leads Trump by 15 points on handling abortion, a decline from her 22-point lead last month.
More than 7 in 10 Arizona voters favor the proposed constitutional amendment establishing the right to an abortion, including a majority of independents and half of Republicans.
Gallego Dominates Senate Race
In the Senate race, Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego holds a commanding lead over Republican Kari Lake. Gallego tops Lake by more than 10 percentage points among both likely voters (55-42%) and registered voters (56-42%). Gallego maintains a lead across most demographic groups, with women voters playing a particularly significant role in his advantage, backing him over Lake by a 23-point margin. He also enjoys support from 6 in 10 independents and nearly 2 in 10 Republicans.
Ticket Splitting Trend Emerges
A notable trend is the ticket splitting among voters, particularly among independents and Republicans. While 15% of Gallego supporters plan to cast their vote for Trump in the presidential race, this split is most pronounced among independents (16 points more likely to back Gallego than Harris) and Republicans (10 points more for Gallego). Notably, only 3% of Lake supporters plan to vote for Harris.
Poll-Pourri
Early voters are more likely to back Harris by 11 points, while Trump enjoys a significant lead (30 points) among the smaller group of Election Day voters.
President Biden’s personal favorability rating stands at a negative 21 points (39% favorable vs. 60% unfavorable), marking a substantial decline from four years ago when his ratings were positive by 2 points (June 2020).
Thirty percent of Arizona voters view the U.S. economy positively, an increase from 25% who felt the same way four years ago.
This Fox News Poll, conducted September 20-24, 2024, involved 1,021 Arizona registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Interviews were conducted via live interviewers on landlines (147) and cellphones (616), or completed online after receiving a text (258). The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points for the registered voter sample and ±3.5 percentage points for the subsample of 764 likely voters.